Above-Average Hurricane Season Predicted

[Kor37 9]

Above-Average Hurricane Season Predicted

By DANICA COTO,AP

Posted: 2008-04-09 12:59:07

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) - A noted hurricane researcher predicted Wednesday that rising water temperatures in the Atlantic will bring a "well above average" storm season this year, including four major storms.

 

The updated forecast by William Gray's team at Colorado State University calls for 15 named storms in the Atlantic in 2008 and says there's a better than average chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the United States.

 

An average of 5.9 hurricanes form in the Atlantic each year.

 

"The Atlantic is a bit warmer than in the past couple of years," said Phil Klotzbach, a member of the forecast team. "That is something we would like to keep an eye on."

 

Gray had projected seven hurricanes with three major storms in a preliminary forecast in December.

 

One of the most closely watched hurricane forecasters, Gray has been issuing hurricane predictions for more than 20 years. But he and others have been criticized in recent years for having forecasts that were off the mark.

 

Gray's team says precise predictions are impossible, and the warnings raise awareness of hurricanes.

 

"We have not been ashamed of our forecast failures. It is the nature of seasonal forecasting to sometimes be wrong," Klotzbach said in a telephone interview from the Bahamas, where the team announced the forecast at a weather conference.

 

The 2007 Atlantic season saw 15 named storms, six of which became hurricanes. Two were major storms.

 

Before the June-November season, U.S. government scientists predicted 13 to 17 named storms and six hurricanes, three to five major. Gray was further off, forecasting 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.

 

U.S. government forecasters issue their seasonal outlook in late May.

 

National Hurricane Center director Bill Read, who is in his first year on the job, has said he would prefer to characterize the season in general terms - as above average, average or below average - instead of trying to forecast a precise number of storms.

 

"It doesn't matter what the numbers are," center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said Wednesday, repeating a center mantra that it takes only one powerful storm to make it a bad season.

We haven't had a bad hurricane season in over 5 years yet they give us this same forecast every single Spring. I think its a plot by the oil companies. We MAY have a bad hurricane season which MAY cause damage to some refineries therefore we MUST raise prices NOW just in case............ :P

[GhostofMajorHayes 10]

^ Don't the oil companies raise prices irregardless of external stimuli?

[Kor37 9]

^ Don't the oil companies raise prices irregardless of external stimuli?

They do indeed but they have to come up with an excuse every time they do it. They appear to be running out of excuses this year....... :P

[Theunicornhunter 2]

We haven't had a bad hurricane season in over 5 years yet they give us this same forecast every single Spring.

 

Where did you learn math? 2004 & 2005 were devastating hurricane seasons. Floridians are never going to forget 2004 - we're still being surcharged on our homeowners policies to pay back 2004 - haven't gotten to 2005 yet. And while everyone remembers Katrina from 2005, Wilma came a few weeks later and was the 4th most costly hurricane in Florida history. And actually last year there were two back to back cat 5's that hit land - they just hit central America not North America but they were still deadly to the people they killed.

 

People that grew up in Florida have some sense - they stock up on non-perishable food, water, tarps, duct tape, batteries etc. We usually get a tax free week the first week of June for all emergency related items. Those who migrated from the Nothern States tend to ignore warnings to prepare and then whine when the government doesn't bring them ice fast enough when they don't have electricity for a few days.

 

It's better to prepare and not need it than to not prepare and need it.

 

Maybe they'll just skip Florida and head to Maryland this year :P j/k

[VaBeachGuy 12]

I always look forward to a good hurricane from time to time. I just hate it when the power is out for a week.

[GhostofMajorHayes 10]

^ Don't the oil companies raise prices irregardless of external stimuli?

They do indeed but they have to come up with an excuse every time they do it. They appear to be running out of excuses this year....... :blink:

 

 

Quoted for truth :P

[Kor37 9]

We haven't had a bad hurricane season in over 5 years yet they give us this same forecast every single Spring.

 

Where did you learn math? 2004 & 2005 were devastating hurricane seasons. Floridians are never going to forget 2004 - we're still being surcharged on our homeowners policies to pay back 2004 - haven't gotten to 2005 yet. And while everyone remembers Katrina from 2005, Wilma came a few weeks later and was the 4th most costly hurricane in Florida history. And actually last year there were two back to back cat 5's that hit land - they just hit central America not North America but they were still deadly to the people they killed.

 

People that grew up in Florida have some sense - they stock up on non-perishable food, water, tarps, duct tape, batteries etc. We usually get a tax free week the first week of June for all emergency related items. Those who migrated from the Nothern States tend to ignore warnings to prepare and then whine when the government doesn't bring them ice fast enough when they don't have electricity for a few days.

 

It's better to prepare and not need it than to not prepare and need it.

 

Maybe they'll just skip Florida and head to Maryland this year :) j/k

Wow...I stand corrected! Why did I think that Katrina and Wilma were more than 5 years ago? I guess you Floridians do have more of a sense for these things since it affects you so much. Here in Maryland the state motto is "The Land Of Pleasant Living". Its true because we never have any weather extremes.

Edited April 10, 2008 by Kor37