Asteroids

[Lollypop 0]

Q&A ON ASTEROIDS AND THE THREAT TO EARTH

 

Duncan Steel,

Vice president of Spaceguard

 

 

Q: Is the threat of an asteroid hitting Earth exaggerated?

 

A: No, it's not exaggerated. Compared to other hazards we face, it turns out to be a very real risk. Based on recent evidence, we estimate the chances of an asteroid doing catastrophic damage in the next century are approximately one in 5,000.

 

Q: If we find an asteroid on a collision course with Earth, is there an international plan?

 

A: No, there is no international plan. This is an area of which governments are sadly ignorant. What we really need to do is to carry out a surveillance programme first of all, and this is simply not being done. In essence, the only country doing anything in this area is the United States. There is no southern hemisphere asteroid search programme.

[A l t e r E g o 9]

Good post Lollypop, this subject scares the heck outta me, I think we should be doing something about the risk but I don't know what other than keeping my Prayers up to date.

[Lollypop 0]

We had 3 near misses last year all coming from the direction of the sun, and weren't pcked up till they had passed.

[Lollypop 0]

Scary Stuff

 

Click for Spoiler:

Imagine: NASA scientists announce they have detected a 10-mile-wide asteroid on a collision course with the Earth. They calculate it will hit Southeast Asia in two weeks. There is no chance of Bruce Willis being sent on a beefed-up Space Shuttle to blow up the asteroid. Earthlings will have to ride out the impact.

The Tunguska event in 1908 flattened 800 square miles of Siberian forest -- and the object didn't even reach the ground.

The world economy grinds to a halt as people take to the hills. Anarchy sets in, civilisation breaks down. Accusations fly over the lack of warning -- where was Spaceguard, the proposed international search effort for large asteroids?

 

People in Brazil feel less vulnerable than most of the world's population. They are on the opposite side of the Earth from the predicted impact point. But one hour after the impact Brazilians notice some brilliant meteors. Then more meteors. Soon the sky gets brighter and hotter from the overwhelming number of meteors. Within a few minutes trees ignite from the fierce radiant heat. Millions of fragments of rock, ejected into space by the blast, are making a fiery return all over the planet.

 

Only people hiding underground survive the deadly fireworks display. Within three hours, however, massive shock waves from the impact travel through the Earth's crust and converge on Brazil at the same time. The ground shakes so violently that the ground fractures and molten rock spews from deep underground. Maybe Brazil wasn't the best place to be after all.

 

The survivors of the firestorms, tsunami and massive earthquakes emerge to a devastated landscape. Within a few days the Sun vanishes behind a dark thick cloud -- a combination of soot from the firestorms, dust thrown up by the impact and a toxic smog from chemical reactions. Photosynthesis in plants and algae ceases and temperatures plummet. A long, sunless Arctic winter seems mild compared to the new conditions on most of the planet.

 

After a year or so the dust settles and sunlight begins to filter through the clouds. The Earth's surface starts warming up. But the elevated carbon dioxide levels created by the fires (and, by chance, vaporisation of huge quantities of limestone at the impact site) results in a runway greenhouse effect. Those creatures that managed to survive the deep freeze now have to cope with being cooked.

 

Many species of plants and animals vanish. The few hundred thousand human survivors find themselves reverting to a Stone Age extinction.

 

Evidence of past impacts has only been recognised in recent decades and is pointing to the conclusion that big impacts have caused major disruptions to the development of life on Earth.

 

The end of the dinosaurs

In 1980 Scientists Luis and Walter Alvarez claimed they had found evidence of a huge impact event 65 million years ago. This age corresponded with the demise of the dinosaurs at the end of the Cretaceous Period. The evidence included a worldwide layer of clay with high levels of the rare element iridium, usually the signature of an impact.

 

The search was on for a giant crater associated with this impact. Hopes weren't high because in 65 millions years the Earth's surface has changed dramatically - nearly all of the present ocean floor is younger than 50 million years.

 

Some great scientific detective work pointed to an impact somewhere in Central or North America. Finally, in 1990, the buried remains of a 150-mile-diameter crater were discovered near the town of Chicxulub on theYucatan Peninsula in Mexico. A crater this size would have been blasted out by a 10-mile-wide comet or asteroid colliding with the Earth at some 50,000 mph. The "smoking gun" had been found.

 

Impact, volcanoes or both?

The debate continues on whether the Chicxulub impact caused the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous Period or whether it was one of a sequence of disasters. The Deccan Traps of India are the remnants of a massive upwelling of molten rock from deep within the Earth 65 million years ago. The toxic fumes and dust from the eruption have been put forward as a possible alternative cause of climate change that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs

 

There are relatively few places on Earth where any geological features can be expected to survive beyond tens of millions of years. Impact craters have been found on most of the rare ancient landforms. In several cases the estimated age of a large crater appears to match that of a mass extinction event, as told in the fossil record. Although the picture is still fuzzy -- due to the time scales involved -- massive impacts by comets and asteroids deserve serious consideration as an explanation for some of these extinction events.

[A l t e r E g o 9]

Of the two known options for dealing with it blowing up the rock or steering out of the way I would opt for steering it out of the way. I am no physicist but this is how I see one possible solution; a system is devised where by small rocket motors could be easily launched, perhaps from existing icbm bunkers to reduce costs, the number of motors launched could be dependant on the force necessary to deflect it according to the mass of the object. The motors could fly up to and attach to the front of the rock (if closing speed allows that (?)) the steer able rockets then could fire and push it into a new orbit. (???)

[Yillara Skye 1]

Of the two known options for dealing with it blowing up the rock or steering out of the way I would opt for steering it out of the way. I am no physicist but this is how I see one possible solution; a system is devised where by small rocket motors could be easily launched, perhaps from existing icbm bunkers to reduce costs, the number of motors launched could be dependant on the force necessary to deflect it according to the mass of the object. The motors could fly up to and attach to the front of the rock (if closing speed allows that (?)) the steer able rockets then could fire and push it into a new orbit. (???)

Steering it out of the way seems to be the most logical, blowing it up could set the planet up for more widespread problems(not as severe as letting it hit us, but still deviating it off the course as a whole unit seems to be better).

I see where you are going with this Alterego, and it is a pretty good plan. the biggest gray area in this will always be the ability to land on the object. Hmmm, this could make for an interesting debate here...

[A l t e r E g o 9]

Thank you Yillara. Overnight I had a thought, which could be a serious wrench in the works for this idea; Launch Window. The object may need to be at a specific point in space in order for the rockets to successfully rendezvous with the rock or comet. Bummer, if that's true then I doubt nature will be so accommodating and we're back to doomsday

 

MQ, Xeroc, any thoughts?

[Yillara Skye 1]

Thank you Yillara. Overnight I had a thought, which could be a serious wrench in the works for this idea; Launch Window. The object may need to be at a specific point in space in order for the rockets to successfully rendezvous with the rock or comet. Bummer, if that's true then I doubt nature will be so accommodating and we're back to doomsday

 

MQ, Xeroc, any thoughts?

true first there is the whole window calculation that needs to be made. then(It was brought up in most asteroid/comet disaster movies, but based on a truth it seems), there is the whole situation of zero barrier, the point by which the change in course must take place to have an effect. Very precarious measurements, but eventually these will need to be done, I just hope it is before we discover we're only months aways from a catastrophe.

[bearded ape 0]

as of right now we are hopeing that we are lucky. we dont have nearly enough teliscopes trained on the sky to see when an astreoid is comeing. many scientists think we would see it with the naked eye before we saw it with telescopes. i guess the engine idea is sound and if we really had to we could blow it up. that would at least make it a little better for us humans.

[Klingonmike 0]

Did you know there are more people working a dayshift at McDonalds than there are people looking and searching the skies from near Earth astroids?

[Captain Jean-Luc Picard 1]

Worst Case Scenario - We can't do anything and most of life on Earth is wiped out.

 

Here's an idea. While trying to figure out how to "deflect" meteors and asteroids, why don't we also have a contingency plan for going underground in the event of a global-scale disaster, provided the rock isn't big enough to blow up Earth or turn the crust into molten lava and so forth.

[Lollypop 0]

The only problem is, we haven't got anything to get there. :(

 

The Russians have the only ships left capable, of doing anything. They have looked after their old ships, and they still in pretty good condition. Not rusting in a desert somewhere. :(

[Lollypop 0]

Worst Case Scenario - We can't do anything and most of life on Earth is wiped out.

 

Here's an idea.  While trying to figure out how to "deflect" meteors and asteroids, why don't we also have a contingency plan for going underground in the event of a global-scale disaster, provided the rock isn't big enough to blow up Earth or turn the crust into molten lava and so forth.

The powers that be, already have deep bunkers for disasters. But the normal Joe Soap won't be invited. :(

[A l t e r E g o 9]

Worst Case Scenario - We can't do anything and most of life on Earth is wiped out.

 

Here's an idea.  While trying to figure out how to "deflect" meteors and asteroids, why don't we also have a contingency plan for going underground in the event of a global-scale disaster, provided the rock isn't big enough to blow up Earth or turn the crust into molten lava and so forth.

The powers that be, already have deep bunkers for disasters. But the normal Joe Soap won't be invited. :(

Agreed Lollypop, I was going to say and will; thats where all the "leaders" are going to be. :(

[Captain Jean-Luc Picard 1]

Well, if it's only for the leaders... we need more secret bunkers. :(

 

Serriously, it could work. Get all your "geniuses" of the world, people could be screened to see how "pure" their DNA is, to ensure the best survival rate for future children as hospitals and all will have to be rebuilt. Basically, it'd be the "best of the best" that would go. As for people who didn't get to go? The President or someone could make a speech explaining that those who go into hiding aren't picked at random or becuase their better than others, but that they are picked becuase they are best fit for the survival of the Human species.

[mrskirk 0]

Well, if it's only for the leaders...  we need more secret bunkers. :(

 

Serriously, it could work.  Get all your "geniuses" of the world, people could be screened to see how "pure" their DNA is, to ensure the best survival rate for future children as hospitals and all will have to be rebuilt.  Basically, it'd be the "best of the best" that would go.  As for people who didn't get to go?  The President or someone could make a speech explaining that those who go into hiding aren't picked at random or becuase their better than others, but that they are picked becuase they are best fit for the survival of the Human species.

PLEASE tell me you're joking!!! "Pure" DNA?? What does that mean??

[Klingonmike 0]

I don't like the sound of that either. Hitler tried that once I believe.

[A l t e r E g o 9]

Well, if it's only for the leaders...  we need more secret bunkers. :(

 

Serriously, it could work.  Get all your "geniuses" of the world, people could be screened to see how "pure" their DNA is, to ensure the best survival rate for future children as hospitals and all will have to be rebuilt.  Basically, it'd be the "best of the best" that would go.  As for people who didn't get to go?  The President or someone could make a speech explaining that those who go into hiding aren't picked at random or becuase their better than others, but that they are picked becuase they are best fit for the survival of the Human species.

PLEASE tell me you're joking!!! "Pure" DNA?? What does that mean??

 

I don't like the sound of that either. Hitler tried that once I believe.

 

He is either joking or

Click for Spoiler:

Baiting. :(

[Theunicornhunter 2]

Well, I'm out of luck my DNA is permeated with Mtn. Dew.

 

Actually, I did some research a couple of years ago on upcoming space missions and they had a mission on the drawing boards to land on and take core samples from a comet but when I've checked on it the mission was scrubed.

 

I suspect a launch window would be a problem for launching an intercept - perhaps we'd better start keeping a rocket and warhead docked at the international space station. (then we'd have something else to worry about)

[Captain Jean-Luc Picard 1]

I'm not joking nor bating. When I say "pure DNA", I mean free of genetic flaws that cause people to be born without limbs, people who haven't been exposed to large amounts of radiation, those who have an easier time remaining fit, that sort of thing. Basically, those who would, genetically, make better survivors. That's all I ment by it. :(

[A l t e r E g o 9]

Well, I'm out of luck my DNA is permeated with Mtn. Dew.

:(

 

Actually, I did some research a couple of years ago on upcoming space missions and they had a mission on the drawing boards to land on and take core samples from a comet but when I've checked on it the mission was scrubed.

 

I missed the news of a mission to take core samples, too bad it was scrubbed, along with the obvious benefits that would have been excellent landing practice. I remember something of a mission that was supposed to travel through a comets coma with a net of "gel" to collect samples for return but all news of that mission has dropped of the radar.

 

I suspect a launch window would be a problem for launching an intercept - perhaps we'd better start keeping a rocket and warhead docked at the international space station. (then we'd have something else to worry about)

 

Interesting. I wonder if having the warhead(s) in orbit(s) would offer a greater number of intercept launch windows… yes, I think it would! However, I have heard the trouble with blowing them up is it does not significantly deflect the broken bits from the prior path.

 

 

Captain Picard, you should read the novels The Eugenics Wars, you are starting to sound just like Khan.

[Captain Jean-Luc Picard 1]

Captain Picard, you should read the novels The Eugenics Wars, you are starting to sound just like Khan.

I hope your joking! :(

How does Kahn sound in the novels?

 

Personally, I'm against genetic engineering, but if the future of Humans, as a species, is at risk, shouldn't we be more concerned with survival of the fittest then survival of the nicest or random?

[Theunicornhunter 2]

I missed the news of a mission to take core samples, too bad it was scrubbed, along with the obvious benefits that would have been excellent landing practice. I remember something of a mission that was supposed to travel through a comets coma with a net of "gel" to collect samples for return but all news of that mission has dropped of the radar.

That mission was part of my research as well.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/missions/deepspace/stardust.html

 

I heard a rumor that part of the secret government hiding place was at the Greenbrier hotel in WV. Probably just a rumor - although I'm sure the bigwigs hide out there for other occasions.

 

[Chataeya 0]

This is some scarey stuff, here. :( Me it is simple, I hope I'm gone when that sucker hits. :(

But , we do need to do something to protect the future, after all. The goverment needs to get up off thier collective butts and start looking into this possiblity. :(

[Lollypop 0]

When I was back in England there was news item concerning a secret government project. It showed them digging down inside a mountain, somewhere or other :(

[Captain Jean-Luc Picard 1]

Knowing me, if & by the time it comes... The sky'll go dark... I'll see a flaming object in the sky. I'll say, "Oh, cra..." BAM! Hello Heaven. :(

[A l t e r E g o 9]

I missed the news of a mission to take core samples, too bad it was scrubbed, along with the obvious benefits that would have been excellent landing practice. I remember something of a mission that was supposed to travel through a comets coma with a net of "gel" to collect samples for return but all news of that mission has dropped of the radar.

That mission was part of my research as well.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/missions/deepspace/stardust.html

Thank you for the link TUH, now I know wazzup with that one.

[A l t e r E g o 9]

When I was back in England there was news item concerning a secret government project. It showed them digging down inside a mountain, somewhere or other  :(

Was there a date attached to that story, March 5 to be precise. If so that has been shown to be a hoax or covered up to appear to be a hoax.

[Lollypop 0]

Near Shoemaker landed on the asteroid Eros 2 years ago

 

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/missi...ar_archive.html

[Lollypop 0]

When I was back in England there was news item concerning a secret government project. It showed them digging down inside a mountain, somewhere or other  :(

Was there a date attached to that story, March 5 to be precise. If so that has been shown to be a hoax or covered up to appear to be a hoax.

I can't remember the date, but it was on the TV news about 17 years ago. It really did show them excavating with huge machinery. And of course the government did deny everything.